Why the Republicans Are Poised to Win

Many believe the democrats have an aesthetic advantage this election cycle because of the diversity of their candidates and the statesmanship of Obama. I was discussing the possibility of a McCainRice ticket with a friend and he suggested that such a ticket would lead Americans to believe that the addition of Rice was merely a response to the diversity of the democrats. Ironically, Obama and Hillary owe much of their viability to the Bush administrations’ promotion of Powell and Rice to high profile cabinet positions. Americans are much more comfortable with the possibility of a black man or a women presidency because Americans have become accustomed to seeing Powell and Rice contribute responsibly and significantly in the governance of our country. Moreover, the Republican party urgently asked Colin Powell to run back in the 90’s and many party insiders pressured President Bush to replace embattled Dick Cheney with popular Condoleezza Rice on the 2004 ticket. Republicans have a much longer list of viable African American presidential and otherwise vice-presidential candidates then the Democratic party. Quite the contrary, the Democratic Party went rummaging through the Illinois State Senate to find a diverse candidate precisely because there is a paucity of electable African-Americans in their Party.

Furthermore, this election cycle is not unlike the 2004 election cycle in which Senators John Kerry and John Edwards ran on an anti-war platform during a time in which the war was extremely unpopular. They lost. It is true that polls consistently reveal that Americans were never convinced of the legitimacy of this war. And similar polls reveal that Americans currently support the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. However, quite contrary to popular belief, the assumption that Americans share the anti-war sentiments of liberal elites has simply not been demonstrated. The reality is that Americans are not generally adverse to war…rather, Americans are adverse to losing war! Faced with the prospect of electing a Commander in Chief and the people will choose the person best capable of winning the war not the one who best convinces the public of retreat! Liberal typhlosis, brought on by ideological prejudice, has left the democrats convinced that the Iraq War is their trump call. So distorted are the democrats on this issue that they insist on discussing Iraq even during a time in which it makes sense to discuss the economy. At their own peril and regardless of the Bush reelection against a decorated war veteran coupled by the well documented inconsistencies of Democratic legislators in which their voting records lack harmony with their rhetoric; the two remaining Democratic candidates continue to make the Iraq War their primary message.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have been making the absurdly self-destructive argument about experience and judgment, particularly with regard to national security. During the General Election in which the Democratic nominee will be head to head with John McCain, the judgment and experience argument will easily favor the Republican. Obama is basing the argument that he has the “judgment to lead” on an anti-war speech given some years prior to his introduction to the American people. However, the Boston Globe reveals that "a review of Obama's record during his 26 months in Congress" demonstrate that he has consistently voted in favor of the continued conflict. You may also be aware that an Obama advisor reassured the British press that his insistence on an immediate withdrawal was merely political posturing. The senator’s equivocation on this issue will likely work to undermine his case for judgment. Likewise, the Clinton experience argument will pale in the face of John McCain’s twenty-seven years in the senate and a war record in which he lead the largest naval squadron and endured torture as a POW. And if Clinton is tempted to point to the unique experience gained from the exclusive access of a familiar relationship with a person of power, people will be made to know that John McCain comes from a family of military leaders among which his father was an admiral.

Finally, I mentioned the economy, a topic all of the candidates seem to avoid like the bubonic plaque. The economy represents an issue liberal elites are too detached from the American people to understand. Consider the democratic debates: have you noticed that when democrats are gathered they debate amongst each other about how best to spend your money? When conservatives are gathered one will notice they debate amongst each other about how best to put your money back into your pocket. For Americans the plans that democrats discuss amount to an invoice: a 286 billion dollar invoice in the case of Barack Obama and a 209 billion dollar invoice in the case of Hillary. American people understand the economy very concretely. That is to say, American people weigh the strength of the economy on the basis of how well they can manage their obligations. Can I pay my mortgage? Can I pay my car note? Can I pay my son’s college tuition? Can I pay for gas? It is much easier for the average American to see how they will have more money available to them to pay for their obligations under conservative tax-cuts.

So then, two issues - the war and the economy - that should be winners for the Democrat Party will prove a boon for the Republicans because the Democratic message does not resonate with voters.

- C. Jerome Ruth